Uganda’s Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury (PSST), Ramathan Ggoobi, has reaffirmed that the country’s economic fundamentals remain strong and supportive of private sector investment. Addressing members of the Kigo Seven Lakes Golf Rotary Club, he highlighted stable growth indicators, including a gross domestic product on the rise, controlled inflation, a steady foreign exchange rate, plateaued interest rates, growing exports, and increasing foreign direct investment and remittances.
Uganda currently offers one of the highest returns on investment in the region, averaging 14%, with returns on equity for listed companies averaging 30%. Poverty has declined to 16% from 20% four years ago, surpassing the national 2025 target of 18.5%. Inequality has also decreased, with the Gini coefficient improving from 0.41 in 2020 to 0.38. Projections indicate that Uganda’s GDP will more than double to USD 158 billion by 2030, while public debt remains sustainable within the Charter for Fiscal Responsibility.
Government spending has been directed towards growth-enabling areas. Borrowed funds, mainly concessional, have been invested in infrastructure such as roads, bridges, railways, and waterways (29.3%); energy (27.6%); internet, education, health, housing and urban development; science, technology and innovation (14%); water and environment (11.5%); and agro-industry (5.8%).
The Tenfold Growth Strategy aims to transform Uganda into a USD 500 billion economy by 2040. This ambition is anchored on ATMS: agro-industrialisation, tourism and travel, mineral beneficiation and manufacturing (including oil and gas), and science, technology and innovation. These pillars will be supported by infrastructure such as transport networks, railways, airports, energy generation and distribution, irrigation systems, industrial parks, social services, security, and financial services, including banking, insurance, and private equity.
The government intends to adapt to new technologies, invest in emerging sectors, and build on new trade and economic relationships. Key policy actions will include maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving fiscal discipline, strengthening institutional capacity, sequencing infrastructure investments appropriately, and fostering productivity by linking the ATMS sectors.
Financing for the Tenfold Growth Strategy will primarily come from tax revenue, with tax-to-GDP expected to increase from 14% to 30% by 2040. Additional financing will include carefully targeted public debt focused on strategic infrastructure, alongside expanded capital markets, long-term finance, private equity, public listings, and private sector credit.
As household incomes rise, demand is expected to grow across a wide range of sectors, including food, housing, energy, travel and tourism, education, healthcare, clothing, and consumables. Business-to-business opportunities will also expand, particularly in manufacturing feedstock, industrial facilities, ICT, hospitality, logistics, finance, and communications.
Government-to-business procurement remains a major opportunity, with more than 60% of the national budget spent through contracts. The projected doubling of GDP within the next five years is expected to drive a corresponding increase in government procurement across utilities, infrastructure, and supplies.
The Tenfold Growth Strategy, with its focus on ATMS sectors and enabling infrastructure, offers significant opportunities for private sector participation. However, businesses will need to formalise and comply with tax requirements in order to benefit.
