The ANC election manifesto says that within five years, commuters should not be spending more than 10% of their income on transport,” the Financial Mail points out in its recent feature. “How does government plan to keep this promise? As a start, in April just before the general elections, then president Kgalema Motlanthe signed into law the National Land Transport Act, which is set to entirely overhaul the way public transport works in SA.

“[deputy transport minister] Cronin says the ultimate goal is to integrate the public transport modes in each city so they form a seamless system. The vision is to have single ticketing systems across all the different transport modes. But when will this become a reality? Nobody can really give time frames, but already Metrobus, Rea Vaya and Metrorail are looking at rolling out a single ticketing system for Johannesburg. For World Cup tourists, Gautrain has developed software that will allow them to book their trips (including Rea Vaya) around the city over the Internet.

“The first phase of this makeover played out on 31 August when the Rea Vaya (which means ‘we are moving’) bus rapid transit (BRT) system rolled out from the 40 stations in Johannesburg. On the first day, it carried about 1,000 commuters (this was helped by the fact that the taxi industry was on strike). Passenger volumes have since settled at around 8,000/day [per direction].

“Metrorail’s Business Express trains, too, have been a solid success. Metrorail has also boosted its general commuter service, and plans to invest R25bn over the medium term on new rolling stock and signalling facilities. The company’s target is to transport 40% of all spectators at World Cup matches through its Johannesburg, Port Elizabeth, Tshwane, Durban and Cape Town services.

“There’s also a role for the taxi industry, which is violently opposed to the BRT, in government’s greater scheme. Plans are afoot to subsidise the industry, regulate its fares and have it operate through contracts with municipalities.

“What are the likely future developments once Gautrain and the initial stages of the various BRT networks are completed? Probably further expansion for rapid buses and Metrorail. Given the opposition from the Left to Gautrain (because of perceptions it won’t benefit the poor), the project will likely end next May at its second phase, which links Johannesburg to Tshwane and OR Tambo International airport. President Jacob Zuma’s Left-leaning government is unlikely to approve further phases or similar projects in SA’s other cities because of their high capital costs. A more attractive option would be to direct funds to mass-transit modes like Metrorail and BRT.

“But for any public transport system to be effective, University of Johannesburg professor Vaughn Mostert says it needs to service every resident in a city within a kilometre of their house. It also needs to operate for at least 12-15 hours a day.

“The economic crisis will prove a silver lining for the public transport sector. The combination of banks freezing credit and shrinking consumer income means fewer people have been buying cars. Vehicle sales have crashed, dropping 26% in August from a year ago. Arup SA’s Marsay says those in the emerging middle class who can no longer afford a car will gravitate towards public transport. ‘Public transport is no longer the prerogative of the poor. Now it could be the prerogative of the newly enfranchised.’ But he’s sceptical of a major rush to these services and believes it will be a hard-sell for government to stop the growing car culture. At best, private car use versus public transport could settle at a 50/50 split in the cities – but this could be attained only around 2025.

“SA will never have 80% of urban residents using public transport, as is the case in central London, or New York’s 90%. ‘To dream of a Paris is unrealistic,’ says Marsay. Cities like London and Paris, and most of Western Europe, are far more compact and have dense populations because of centuries of war. Small cities are far easier to defend than ones spread over large areas.

“Important to the rate of public transport buy-in from the middle class is security. Government has acknowledged this by installing cameras on buses and trains, and posting security guards at all the Rea Vaya stations.

“As the urbanisation trend continues – in 11 years the population of Gauteng, which will be a single metropolis, could equal SA’s 1960 population of more than 17m – it becomes even more important to look at municipal development and transport holistically. As the average household size falls below three people, it will mean providing more than 3m additional homes by 2020. Says [deputy transport minister] Cronin: ‘In the big cities it’s critical to align municipal development, planning for transport and regulatory capacity so they are linked.’

“The new act gives local government the power and responsibility to base its municipal planning on public transport. Our cities will have to be reshaped. Planners in Johannesburg, for example, are drafting a policy framework for what Philip Harrison, executive director of development planning and urban management, calls a transport-orientated development paradigm. It gives priority to properties along the transport corridors and to mixed developments.

“There are some developers edging towards the new paradigm. Afhco in Johannesburg’s inner city provides nursery schools, a park and telephone and Internet connection to its new residential development at 120 End Street. But one of the great failings of the holistic plan will be the property developers not fitting in. Jo’burg city planning head Herman Pienaar agrees that the city must work hard to win over developers. ‘We’ve been engaging the town planners and some developers,’ he says. ‘The results have been mixed. But much of the approval process is a negotiated one. If a developer insists on having some parking, we might agree as long as it comes in the back way and not on the BRT route. Our main challenge is to persuade a developer that social facilities, and perhaps residential on top of his offices, will pay off in the long term.’

“ Government will not be able to affect trends in urban densification by putting public transport in place. Marsay says, rather, transport investment can support and strengthen urbanisation trends already under way. One thing is clear, though: SA’s public transport system is being revolutionised and will change the shape of its major cities, not only in terms of how people do business or make investments, but in lifestyle and culture.

“So what will a city like Johannesburg look like in 20 years? There will be a big shift to high-rise buildings and a greater reliance on public transport. But South Africans should stop thinking about ‘world class’ and focus on ‘African class’ – not better or worse than you would find in First-World cities, but suited to SA’s specific needs.”

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3. TRANSPORT IN SA – PRESENT REALITIES
4. SA WORLD CUP TRANSPORT ON TRACK
5. SA CITIES’ TRANSPORT PLANS
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